OBR: UC poses ‘significant risk’ to public spending control

29th January 2018

The introduction of universal credit poses a “significant risk” to public spending control, the Office of Budget Responsibility has warned.

In its Welfare Trends report, the OBR said its estimate of the impact of the roll-out of the new benefits system on welfare spending was subject to many forecast, modelling, behavioural and policy risks, “compounded by the lack of reliable information on how UC is affecting welfare spending today”.

Although UC – which rolls six benefits into one – was estimated to have a relative small overall impact on public spending, this masked large changes where any unforeseen event could overturn predictions.

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